(电子商务研究中心讯) 机会来源
随着我国电子商务购物+重新想象的主题显示(2月28日)，我们重申我们购买的JD，总商品价值在中国的第二大ecommerceplatform(GMV)。我们相信JD的位置--从快速消费品网上零售增长捕捉下一阶段(快速消费品)，其物流强度和omnichannelpartnerships帮助。我们期待在JD的现有类的盈利能力进一步扩大种植规模，并从2019econtributemeaningful JD超市利润。我们现在价值JD停止捕捉其金融部门的投资价值。转移覆盖Ronald Keung。
催化剂
(1)GMV增长稳定，40% 4q16(GSE)对strongsingle节销售+ 38% / + 39%第一季度/ 2q17e背面(与彭博共识＋35%／36%)增加个性化，快速消费品(FMCG)和1号店直销业务合并(1P)nov2016。JD将于2017年3月2日4q16结果报告。
(2)潜在的进一步合作JD和沃尔玛之间，从六月的5% 2016到今天的10%followingwalmart JD的股份增加，andwalmart已经独家山姆会员店JD.com，从沃尔玛的XinDada十字borderstore和两小时交货。我们seefurther供应链、采购、O2O合作潜力。估值。
我们的2016e / 17e / 18e非GAAP epads从rmb-0.58/1.45/5.07 to-0.25/1.00/4.00第四季度的趋势及我国在快速消费品的scalegains斜坡上升时间的期望。我们是7% 2017e以下共识，但是11%以上的for2018e；介绍2019e epads的rmb9.00。我们切换到停止(我们还usedcf核心零售)更好地捕捉在JD财务价值，投资。
我们12 TP移动到38美元从31.50美元。我们看到rmb73bn FCF，35美元/上海只为核心在未来5年零售dcfvalue，支撑我们的购买。
关键风险
在线GMV下滑、资本配置、边缘斜坡上升轨迹。
Source of opportunity.
Along with our E + Commerce: Shopping Re-Imagined thematic publishedtoday (Feb 28), we reiterate our Buy on JD, the second-largest ecommerceplatform in China by gross merchandise value (GMV). We believe JD is wellpositioned to capture the next phase of online retail growth—from FastMoving Consumer Goods (FMCG), helped by its logistics strength and omnichannelpartnerships. We expect profitability at JD’s existing categories toexpand further on growing scale, and for JD Supermarket to contributemeaningful profits from 2019E. We now value JD on SOTP to capture thevalue of its finance arm, investments. Transfer coverage to Ronald Keung.
Catalyst.
(1) Stabilization of GMV growth, +40% for 4Q16 (GSe) on the back of strongSingle’s Day sales and +38%/+39% for 1Q/2Q17E (vs. Bloomberg consensus+35%/36%) on increasing personalization, Fast-Moving Consumer Goods(FMCG) and consolidation of Yihaodian direct sales (1P) business from Nov2016. JD will report 4Q16 results on March 2, 2017.
(2) Potential further collaboration between JD and Walmart, followingWalmart’s stake increases in JD from 5% in June 2016 to 10% today, andWalmart’s already exclusive Sam’s Club store on JD.com, cross-borderstore and two-hour delivery from Walmart stores with XinDada. We seefurther supply chain, sourcing, O2O collaboration potential.
Valuation.
Our 2016E/17E/18E non-GAAP EPADS moves from Rmb-0.58/1.45/5.07 to-0.25/1.00/4.00 on 4Q trends and our expectation of ramp-up time for scalegains at FMCG. We are 7% below consensus for 2017E, but 11% above for2018E; introduce 2019E EPADS of Rmb9.00. We switch to SOTP (we still useDCF for core retail) to better capture the value in JD Finance, investments.
Our 12-m TP moves to US$38 from US$31.50. We see FCF of Rmb73bn, DCFvalue of US$35/sh just for core retail in next 5 years, underpinning our Buy.
Key risks.
Online GMV slowdown, capital allocation, margin ramp-up trajectory.（来源：高盛高华证券；文/高盛高华证券研究所）
