(电子商务研究中心讯)　　译文：稳健的1Q利率;2017年晚些时候可能会有更多的投资

　　京东的净收入为762亿元人民币，增长2%。总GMV达到1841亿欧元(+ 42%);在线直销和市场GMV均超过2%。总利润率为16%，比DBe高出30%。强劲的营运杠杆，令非gaap净收入为14亿元人民币，远高于350亿元人民币。该公司的2Q收入为88 - 925亿元人民币(+ 35% - 39%)，中间点比DBe高3%。京东金融代表着14亿元人民币的指导。随着盈利能力的大幅提升，京东似乎准备在季节性促销、FMCG成功、研发和其他新举措方面大举投资。尽管我们将2013年的非gaap净利润率维持在0.8%不变，但我们预计，在实现长期盈利能力的道路上，将会有一条更加清晰的道路，并有望在未来的道路上行。

　　认真对待线下协调

　　提高1P利润率，明显地表明了京东日益扩大的采购规模。在一些领先的类别中，京东仍与领先的线下零售商保持着10ppts的利润率差距，从而暗示着大幅提升。京东重申其长期目标是直接销售3% - 5%的净利润率，并为GMV提供1 - 2%的净收入。我们预计，从长期来看，这将转化为一种混合的高个位数的非gaap净利润率，假设京东有30%的GMV来自直接销售。因此，我们提高了外部年份的保证金假设，以反映出更好的利润率前景。

　　2017年主要投资领域;最新进入硅谷的领域

　　FMCG正在以一种非常有意义的方式增长，尽管它正在烧钱。京东预计京东商城的盈利能力将有助于抵消FMCG项目的压力，并没有削减投资的计划。我们设想在硅谷建立一个计划中的研究团队，提高研发费用。鉴于最近的项目延期，资本支出也会增加，从而抑制FCFF。京东打算通过特许便利商店继续建立一个线上到线下的网络。在京东的核心业务盈利能力提高后，我们仍有0.8%的净利润率。由于长期关注非京东客户，京东物流的重组可能会带来额外的利润。京东将在年底前覆盖中国所有县和城市。

　　非常明确的好处。提升14.6%至41.6美元;维持买入我们将FY17/18/19E的收入提高3% / 2% / 1%，以更好地反映收入前景;我们基本上保持了对fy17/18 / 19的非gaap净利润率预估，这是基于未改变的利润率预测。因此，我们的非gaap净收入分别增长了6% / 2% / 2%。我们的TP是基于同等权重的DCF(wacc- 12.3%[0%债务]，tgr2%)和1.1x FY17E EV /销售(与国际电子商务玩家)。风险:较高的O2O损失，较慢的用户/ GMV扩展;FMCG战役失败。

　　原文：Solid 1Q on margin; more investment likely later in 2017

　　JD net revenue of RMB76.2bn beat DBe and consensus by 2%. Total GMV reached 184.1bn (+42% YoY); both online direct sale and marketplace GMV beat DBe by 2%. A gross margin of 16% was 30bps ahead of DBe. Strong operating leverage led to impressive non-GAAP net income of RMB1.4bn, vs DBe RMB350mn. The company guided to 2Q revenue of RMB88-90.5bn (+35%-39% YoY), the mid-point of which is 3% higher than DBe. JD Finance represents RMB1.4bn of the guidance. With profitability coming in magnitudes above expectations, JD seems ready to reinvest heavily in the areas of seasonal promotions, FMCG success, R&D and other new initiatives. While we leave 2017E non-GAAP net margin of 0.8% unchanged, we envision a much clearer path toward long-term profitability and expect upside along the way.

　　Taking margin harmonization with the offline seriously

　　Improving 1P margin is significantly indicative of JD’s growing procurement scale. For some leading categories, JD still maintains a 10ppts margin gap with leading offline retailers, thus suggesting substantial improvement upside. JD reiterated its long-term target of a 3-5% net margin for its direct sale and a 1-2% net income to GMV for marketplace. We expect this to translate into a blended high-single-digit non-GAAP net margin in the long term, assuming JD derives 30% of its GMV from direct sales. We therefore lift our margin assumption for outer years to reflect a better margin outlook.

　　Major investments areas in 2017; the latest to move into Silicon Valley

　　FMCG is growing in a very meaningful way, although it is burning money. JD expects the profitability of JD Mall to help offset pressures from the FMCG program and has no plan to cut back on investment. We envision higher R&D expense driven by a planned research team build-up in Silicon Valley. Capex should also rise given recent project postponements, thus suppressing FCFF. JD intends to continue to build up an online-to-offline network by franchising convenience stores. We are still confident in a 0.8% net margin after these investments driven by JD’s improving core business profitability. The restructuring of JD Logistics could bring some extra margin given its long-term focus on non-JD clients. JD delivery intends to cover all counties and cities in China by year-end.

　　Very clear margin upside. Lifting TP by 14.6% to US$41.6; Maintain Buy

　　We lift FY17/18/19E revenue by 3%/2%/1% to reflect better a revenue outlook; we largely maintain our non-GAAP net margin forecast for FY17/18/19 given the unchanged margin profile forecasts. We therefore increase non-GAAP net income by 6%/2%/2% respectively. Our TP is based on an equal weighting of DCF (WACC-12.3% [0% debt], TGR-2%) and 1.1x FY17E EV/Sales (in line with international e-commerce players). Risks: higher O2O losses, slower user/GMV expansion; failure in FMCG campaigns.（来源：德意志银行；文/Alan Hellawell；编选：中国电子商务研究中心）